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New Tariffs Could Sink China’s Growth—What You Need to Know? 

A recent decision by Trump to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports is expected to exacerbate China’s already fragile economy. 

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United States: The impending augmentation of US tariffs is projected to exacerbate China’s already precarious economic landscape, amplifying demands for an assertive fiscal response to counteract diminishing growth momentum. 

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump actualized a pre-election warning, instituting an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports effective Tuesday. This decision stems from Beijing’s purported inaction in curtailing the influx of fentanyl into the United States. 

These newly imposed duties compound the pre-existing levies of up to 25 percent that Trump instituted during his initial tenure, further compounding trade tensions between the two economic superpowers, according to reports by cnbc.com

Economic analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that the supplementary 10 percent tariffs will shave 50 basis points off China’s real GDP growth this year. The bank estimates that China’s GDP expansion will decelerate to 4.5 percent in 2025, with inflationary pressures remaining subdued due to feeble domestic demand. Consumer inflation, which edged up a mere 0.2 percent year-over-year in 2024, is projected to rise only 0.4 percent in the coming year. The higher US tariff regime could intensify this strain as external demand for Chinese commodities wanes. 

As Trump embarks on his second term, he has mandated a comprehensive review of China’s adherence to the 2020 trade pact forged during his first administration. Findings from this investigation, expected by April 1, may lay the groundwork for further tariff impositions, according to economic experts. 

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, noted the unpredictability surrounding the scope and timeline of additional tariffs, despite the initial 10 percent increase being more moderate than anticipated. UBS continues to forecast a 4.0 percent GDP growth rate for China in 2025, factoring in the possibility of a 60 percent US tariff on a quarter of China’s exports and Beijing’s likely countermeasures to sustain economic stability, as mentioned by cnbc.com. 

Currency Fluctuations and Beijing’s Defensive Strategies 

The Chinese yuan experienced a sharp 0.60 percent depreciation, reaching 7.3631 per US dollar in offshore trading on Monday before partially recovering, per LSEG data. Since Trump’s electoral victory in November, the offshore yuan has contracted by 3.7 percent. 

With mainland Chinese markets closed for Lunar New Year, trading is set to resume on Wednesday. Analysts will closely monitor the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) reference rate determination, a pivotal indicator of Beijing’s stance on the tariff escalation. 

Ding Shuang, Chief Economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, asserted that China is expected to prioritize domestic stimulus measures over aggressive currency devaluation to counteract the tariff impact. Since 2024, the PBOC has consistently held the exchange rate guidance below 7.20 per US dollar, signaling a strong resolve to maintain currency stability, as per cnbc.com. 

Goldman Sachs anticipates that Beijing may permit a controlled depreciation of the yuan within the 7.40–7.50 range against the greenback while prioritizing foreign exchange stability over additional monetary easing. The central bank is likely to abstain from aggressive liquidity measures, such as reserve requirement reductions, opting instead for targeted interventions through open-market repurchase operations. 

Economic Stimulus in the Pipeline 

During Trump’s first term, China managed to circumvent the full brunt of US tariffs through strategic trade diversions and currency adjustments. However, Barclays warns that these levers are now significantly constrained, leaving China with fewer avenues to mitigate the economic impact. 

Amid the looming trade confrontation, economists anticipate expanded fiscal expenditures to counteract deflationary pressures and invigorate domestic consumption. China’s economy met its 5.0 percent growth target last year, but its recovery has been hampered by a sluggish real estate sector and tepid business and consumer confidence, positioning exports as a crucial growth engine. In 2023, exports accounted for nearly 20 percent of China’s GDP, per World Bank statistics, according to the reports by cnbc.com. 

In 2024, China’s exports to the US surged by 4.9 percent to USD 524.6 billion, constituting roughly 15 percent of its total exports. The nation’s trade surplus with the US expanded to over USD 360 billion in 2024, up from USD 336 billion the previous year, according to official customs reports. 

Since late 2024, Beijing has rolled out a succession of economic support initiatives, including interest rate reductions and a colossal five-year fiscal package worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion). As a result, select economic sectors have shown signs of stabilization. This year, China’s leadership has underscored consumption stimulation as a primary objective, launching an extensive consumer goods trade-in program to bolster spending. 

Investors are keenly observing Beijing’s next course of action, as trade hostilities with the US are expected to escalate. March’s annual parliamentary session is anticipated to unveil additional stimulus measures and formalize China’s GDP growth targets for the year. 

Goldman Sachs projects that Beijing will implement more expansionary fiscal policies, widening the augmented fiscal deficit by 2.6 percentage points of GDP in 2025. 

China’s Countermeasures and WTO Challenge 

On Sunday, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced its intent to challenge Trump’s tariff escalation at the World Trade Organization (WTO), denouncing the move as a blatant violation of global trade regulations, according to reports by cnbc.com. 

While Beijing pledged to enact “corresponding countermeasures to resolutely protect its rights and interests,” it refrained from specifying immediate retaliatory actions. Historically, China’s WTO complaints have been largely symbolic, similar to its grievances against European Union tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. 

Lynn Song, Chief Economist at LNG, suggested that Beijing’s initial response appears measured, possibly due to the ongoing Lunar New Year holidays delaying any substantial policy announcements until February 5. Nevertheless, he warned that if cornered, China’s retaliation could surpass current market expectations. 

Potential countermeasures include reinforcing export restrictions on rare earth materials, which are essential for high-tech industries, or imposing regulatory constraints on major US corporations with heavy exposure to the Chinese market. 

Moreover, Trump’s Saturday executive order imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports, a key transhipment hub for Chinese goods. This move may compel China to recalibrate its trade strategy by strengthening economic alliances with ASEAN and Latin American nations, thereby mitigating reliance on US markets in an increasingly protectionist landscape, as per cnbc.com. 

As trade tensions intensify, global markets are bracing for a potential economic recalibration, with China navigating a complex interplay of fiscal policy, currency management, and diplomatic maneuvering to cushion the fallout of Trump’s escalating tariff war. 

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Trump, Starmer, and Zelenskyy: What Really Happened at the White House?

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Trump, Starmer, and Zelenskyy: What Really Happened at the White House? | Credits: Reuters

United States: Amid a swirl of inquiries on Thursday, former President Donald Trump found himself repeatedly questioned about his prior remarks, wherein he branded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator.” However, Trump frequently sidestepped the inquiries or seemed unable to recall his contentious statement.

During a meeting at the White House with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the two leaders engaged in discussions centered around brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia. Trump highlighted what he described as back-to-back “highly productive” conversations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy, expressing optimism for a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict, according to reports by Fox News.

“I believe we’ve made significant strides, and the pace of progress is quite encouraging,” Trump asserted. “Tomorrow, the momentum toward peace will gain further traction as President Zelenskyy visits the White House. He’ll arrive early in the day, and together, we’ll sign a landmark agreement that positions the United States as a pivotal partner in the development of Ukraine’s valuable minerals, rare earth elements, as well as its oil and gas resources.”

The planned meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is set for approximately 11 a.m. on Friday. Trump emphasized that the rare earth minerals agreement would lay a robust foundation for a sustainable and mutually beneficial future between the United States and Ukraine.

With Zelenskyy’s visit imminent, journalists pressed Trump on whether he intended to issue an apology for his “dictator” remark. Earlier this month, Trump had sharply criticized Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections” following Ukraine’s exclusion from the initial US-led peace negotiations with Russia.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump declared, “A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast, or he is not going to have a Country left. Meanwhile, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only ‘TRUMP’ and the Trump Administration can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the ‘gravy train’ going,” as per the reports by Fox News.

When reporters revisited the subject as Trump welcomed Starmer, one journalist drew attention to the apparent contradiction between Trump labeling Zelenskyy a dictator and Starmer’s categorization of Putin as a dictator.

Trump deftly dodged the initial question, prompting a follow-up from another reporter, asking if he still stood by his assertion that Zelenskyy was a dictator.

“Did I say that?” Trump responded, appearing perplexed. “I can’t believe I said that. Next question.”

Later, following a private meeting in the Oval Office, Trump and Starmer reappeared before the press. Once again, Trump was asked whether he would seize the opportunity to apologize to Zelenskyy for his remark while simultaneously offering praise to Putin, widely regarded as an autocratic leader.

Rather than directly addressing his “dictator” comment, Trump instead spoke of the impending meeting with Zelenskyy, stating, “I think we’re going to have a very good meeting tomorrow… We’re going to get along really well.”

While the Ukraine-Russia conflict was a focal point of the discussions between Trump and Starmer, trade also emerged as a significant topic. When questioned about potential tariffs on the UK, Trump acknowledged that Starmer had made a strong case against such measures, according to the reports by Fox News.

“I think there’s a very good chance that, in the case of these two great friendly countries, I think we could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn’t be necessary,” Trump said. “We’ll see.”

Despite the rocky beginnings of US-UK relations in the colonial era, both leaders emphasized the enduring strength and uniqueness of the modern alliance. As a testament to this special relationship, Starmer presented Trump with a letter from King Charles, extending a formal invitation for a state visit.

“It was my privilege and honor to bring a letter with me today from His Majesty the King, not only sending his best wishes but also inviting the president and the first lady to make a state visit to the United Kingdom, an unprecedented second state visit,” Starmer announced. “It’s so incredible. It will be historic, and I’m delighted that I can go back to His Majesty the King and tell him that President Trump has accepted the invitation.”

Trump, visibly pleased, expressed his gratitude to the prime minister and couldn’t resist a lighthearted comment, according to Fox News.

“What a beautiful accent,” he remarked. “I would have been president 20 years ago if I had that accent.”

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Oil Prices Soar After This New Surprise Move—What It Means for You

Oil prices rose over 1 percent on Thursday after Trump revoked Chevron’s license to export Venezuelan crude, sparking supply concerns.

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Oil Prices Soar After This New Surprise Move—What It Means for You | Credits: Freepik

United States: Oil prices surged beyond 1 percent on Thursday as apprehensions over supply constraints reemerged following US President Donald Trump’s abrupt revocation of a crucial license that had permitted US energy behemoth Chevron (CVX.N) to continue its Venezuelan operations. 

However, these gains were tempered by mounting optimism regarding a potential diplomatic resolution in Ukraine, which, if materialized, could lead to an uptick in Russian crude exports. Additionally, an unanticipated increase in US gasoline and distillate inventories exerted downward pressure on price momentum, according to reports by Reuters.

As of 1240 GMT, Brent crude futures advanced 86 cents, equivalent to a 1.19 percent rise, reaching USD 73.39 per barrel. Concurrently, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 78 cents, or 1.14 percent, to settle at USD 69.40 per barrel. This follows a prior session where both contracts concluded at their lowest valuation since December 10. 

“Oil prices are exhibiting signs of stabilization around their two-month troughs after Trump’s decision to rescind Chevron’s license, effectively barring the company from exporting Venezuelan crude,” noted PVM analyst Tamas Varga. 

The revocation of Chevron’s license signifies the company’s forfeiture of its ability to ship Venezuelan crude to international markets. Consequently, if Venezuela’s state-run oil entity PDVSA assumes control over these exports, US refineries will find themselves unable to procure the crude due to stringent American sanctions, as per Reuters.

“Chevron’s withdrawal from the Venezuelan oil landscape could curtail the nation’s overall crude production, potentially affording OPEC+ additional leeway to amplify output,” analysts at TD Cowen observed in a research note. “Should this materialize, coastal refiners in the US might face escalated procurement expenses.” 

In the event that OPEC+ refrains from augmenting supply, the market could witness a pronounced elevation in heavy sour crude prices, a development that would disproportionately impact US refiners reliant on such blends. 

Chevron currently exports approximately 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its Venezuelan operations, a figure constituting over a quarter of the country’s total oil production. 

According to the reports, Trump’s overtures toward brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace accord have garnered significant scrutiny. The former president disclosed that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy is scheduled to visit Washington on Friday to finalize an accord concerning rare earth minerals. However, Zelenskiy underscored that the outcome of negotiations hinges on continued US assistance. 

“Financial markets thrive on clarity and abhor uncertainty. Absent a definitive trajectory on trade tariffs and Eastern European stability, oil prices are likely to oscillate unpredictably, with sporadic, sentiment-driven surges,” Varga added. 

Separately, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday revealed an unexpected contraction in domestic crude inventories spurred by heightened refining activity. However, contrary to forecasts, gasoline and distillate stockpiles registered unanticipated gains, adding an additional layer of complexity to market dynamics.

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Why Is Elon Musk Shaping Trump’s Cabinet? The Answer May Surprise You! 

White House press secretary explained why Musk would attend Trump’s inaugural Cabinet meeting despite not being a Cabinet member. 

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Why Is Elon Musk Shaping Trump’s Cabinet? The Answer May Surprise You! 

United States: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday elucidated to reporters why Elon Musk is slated to join President Trump’s inaugural Cabinet meeting, despite his non-Cabinet status, offering a glimpse into the forthcoming assembly.   

“Elon collaborates daily with Cabinet secretaries and their teams to unearth inefficiency, malfeasance, and exploitation within these agencies,” Leavitt articulated when probed about Musk’s participation. “Every Cabinet secretary heeds the guidance and strategic direction of DOGE,” she affirmed.   

Leavitt further underscored the symbiotic relationship between the secretaries and DOGE, shedding light on the meeting’s objectives, according to the reports by CNN.  

“Cabinet members will be presenting updates on their progress,” she conveyed, “and sharing insights into the initiatives underway within their agencies, particularly in relation to advancing the policy commitments the president championed during his campaign.”   

Why Is Elon Musk Shaping Trump’s Cabinet? The Answer May Surprise You! 
Why Is Elon Musk Shaping Trump’s Cabinet? The Answer May Surprise You! 

House Speaker Seeks Minimal Adjustments to Budget Resolution Ahead of Senate Discussions 

According to the reports by CNN, House Speaker Mike Johnson disclosed plans to convene with Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Wednesday, following the House’s narrow approval of its budget framework on Tuesday evening.   

When questioned about his openness to alterations in the final budget resolution, Johnson told CNN, “As few changes as feasible.”   

The House’s adoption of the extensive budget outline came after Johnson’s determined efforts to sway resistant members. With a last-minute push from President Donald Trump via phone calls, GOP leaders engaged in a whirlwind of persuasion throughout Tuesday to galvanize support for their proposal. 

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