United States: Oil prices surged beyond 1 percent on Thursday as apprehensions over supply constraints reemerged following US President Donald Trump’s abrupt revocation of a crucial license that had permitted US energy behemoth Chevron (CVX.N) to continue its Venezuelan operations. 

However, these gains were tempered by mounting optimism regarding a potential diplomatic resolution in Ukraine, which, if materialized, could lead to an uptick in Russian crude exports. Additionally, an unanticipated increase in US gasoline and distillate inventories exerted downward pressure on price momentum, according to reports by Reuters.

As of 1240 GMT, Brent crude futures advanced 86 cents, equivalent to a 1.19 percent rise, reaching USD 73.39 per barrel. Concurrently, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 78 cents, or 1.14 percent, to settle at USD 69.40 per barrel. This follows a prior session where both contracts concluded at their lowest valuation since December 10. 

“Oil prices are exhibiting signs of stabilization around their two-month troughs after Trump’s decision to rescind Chevron’s license, effectively barring the company from exporting Venezuelan crude,” noted PVM analyst Tamas Varga. 

The revocation of Chevron’s license signifies the company’s forfeiture of its ability to ship Venezuelan crude to international markets. Consequently, if Venezuela’s state-run oil entity PDVSA assumes control over these exports, US refineries will find themselves unable to procure the crude due to stringent American sanctions, as per Reuters.

“Chevron’s withdrawal from the Venezuelan oil landscape could curtail the nation’s overall crude production, potentially affording OPEC+ additional leeway to amplify output,” analysts at TD Cowen observed in a research note. “Should this materialize, coastal refiners in the US might face escalated procurement expenses.” 

In the event that OPEC+ refrains from augmenting supply, the market could witness a pronounced elevation in heavy sour crude prices, a development that would disproportionately impact US refiners reliant on such blends. 

Chevron currently exports approximately 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its Venezuelan operations, a figure constituting over a quarter of the country’s total oil production. 

According to the reports, Trump’s overtures toward brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace accord have garnered significant scrutiny. The former president disclosed that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy is scheduled to visit Washington on Friday to finalize an accord concerning rare earth minerals. However, Zelenskiy underscored that the outcome of negotiations hinges on continued US assistance. 

“Financial markets thrive on clarity and abhor uncertainty. Absent a definitive trajectory on trade tariffs and Eastern European stability, oil prices are likely to oscillate unpredictably, with sporadic, sentiment-driven surges,” Varga added. 

Separately, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday revealed an unexpected contraction in domestic crude inventories spurred by heightened refining activity. However, contrary to forecasts, gasoline and distillate stockpiles registered unanticipated gains, adding an additional layer of complexity to market dynamics.

United States: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday elucidated to reporters why Elon Musk is slated to join President Trump’s inaugural Cabinet meeting, despite his non-Cabinet status, offering a glimpse into the forthcoming assembly.   

“Elon collaborates daily with Cabinet secretaries and their teams to unearth inefficiency, malfeasance, and exploitation within these agencies,” Leavitt articulated when probed about Musk’s participation. “Every Cabinet secretary heeds the guidance and strategic direction of DOGE,” she affirmed.   

Leavitt further underscored the symbiotic relationship between the secretaries and DOGE, shedding light on the meeting’s objectives, according to the reports by CNN.  

“Cabinet members will be presenting updates on their progress,” she conveyed, “and sharing insights into the initiatives underway within their agencies, particularly in relation to advancing the policy commitments the president championed during his campaign.”   

House Speaker Seeks Minimal Adjustments to Budget Resolution Ahead of Senate Discussions 

According to the reports by CNN, House Speaker Mike Johnson disclosed plans to convene with Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Wednesday, following the House’s narrow approval of its budget framework on Tuesday evening.   

When questioned about his openness to alterations in the final budget resolution, Johnson told CNN, “As few changes as feasible.”   

The House’s adoption of the extensive budget outline came after Johnson’s determined efforts to sway resistant members. With a last-minute push from President Donald Trump via phone calls, GOP leaders engaged in a whirlwind of persuasion throughout Tuesday to galvanize support for their proposal. 

United States: The Trump administration orchestrated a sweeping overhaul at the Pentagon on Friday evening, ousting six senior officials as Secretary Pete Hegseth fulfilled his pledge to disrupt the department’s leadership hierarchy. 

President Donald Trump and Hegseth dismissed Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appointing Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, a relatively obscure figure, in his place. 

Caine’s selection underscores Trump’s inclination toward unconventional warfare and special operations. Caine was among the cadre of military leaders who convened with Trump in December 2018 at Iraq’s Al Asad airbase. During Trump’s visit to deliver a Christmas address and assess the situation firsthand, Caine proposed a rapid defeat of ISIS through intensified resources and eased engagement constraints, according to the reports by Fox News.

“‘We’re only hitting them from a temporary base in Syria,'” Trump recounted Caine saying. “‘But if you gave us permission, we could strike them from the back, from the side, from every angle – from the very base you’re standing on, sir. They wouldn’t know what hit them.'” 

This perspective sharply contrasted with the more cautious counsel from Pentagon leadership, leaving a lasting impact on Trump, according to Rob Greenway, a former National Security Council official who accompanied the trip and has known Caine since their days at Virginia Military Institute. 

In announcing Caine’s appointment, Trump praised him as “a distinguished pilot, a national security strategist, a successful entrepreneur, and a ‘warfighter’ with robust experience in interagency and special operations.” 

Trump tapped Caine from relative obscurity to serve as his chief military advisor following criticisms that Gen. CQ Brown had advanced a “woke” agenda at the Pentagon. Brown had previously issued a 2022 memo outlining diversity objectives for the Air Force. 

Although Caine lacks the conventional qualifications for the role—such as being a combatant commander or a service chief—he will need a waiver to secure confirmation. 

The move has left defense analysts speculating about the trajectory Caine might take in this pivotal role. 

“Caine hasn’t published much, so we’re left deciphering the tea leaves,” said Mark Cancian, a senior defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Greenway lauded Caine as “an inspired choice, a remarkable officer with a diverse background, and someone who enjoys the president’s confidence,” as per the reports by Fox News. 

Caine’s reputation as a tenacious fighter pilot, earning him the moniker “Razin” Caine, undoubtedly appealed to Trump. However, Greenway suggested that Caine’s unconventional path through both the military and the private sector also factored into Trump’s decision. 

“One of the president’s priorities is for the Pentagon to finally pass an audit. He wants someone who understands balance sheets and can steer the department toward financial accountability.” 

The Pentagon has failed seven consecutive audits, prompting the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to target the Defense Department for budgetary cuts. 

Caine, an experienced F-16 pilot, has served in roles ranging from top military liaison to the CIA to an Air National Guard officer and the founder of a regional airline in Texas. He was also a White House fellow at the Agriculture Department and a counterterrorism expert on the White House’s Homeland Security Council. 

Between 2018 and 2019, he acted as deputy commander of Special Operations Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, which has combated the Islamic State since 2014. Although details of his contributions remain scant, clandestine airstrikes escalated during his tenure as Trump delegated airstrike authorization to commanders on the ground. 

Critics, however, argue that Caine, like Hegseth, lacks the high-level command experience necessary for his new advisory position, according to the reports. 

“Trump seems to view the role as one with the authority to mobilize forces and allocate funds, but it doesn’t function that way,” said Gene Moran, a former advisor to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and founder of lobbying firm Capitol Integration. “The president now has advisors with limited senior-level qualifications in these critical roles.” 

The administration also dismissed Adm. Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations, whom Hegseth reportedly believed was appointed primarily due to her gender. Additionally, Gen. Jim Slife, Air Force vice chief of staff, and the judge advocates general of the Army, Navy, and Air Force were relieved of their duties. 

“If naval operations falter, at least we can take solace in achieving another first! The first female member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—hooray,” Hegseth quipped in his 2024 book, The War on Warriors. 

Greenway noted the Navy’s struggles with delivering procurement programs on schedule and within budget, as well as its tendency to decommission more ships than it builds. “The message here is that accountability must be restored,” he said. 

Perhaps the most significant policy shift could emerge from the overhaul of the judge advocates general. Hegseth aims to enhance the autonomy of ground forces, reducing legal oversight that could impede military operations. 

The judge advocates general, as the top legal officers of their respective branches oversee legal advisors, defense counsel, and prosecutors for court-martial. 

Hegseth has criticized what he perceives as excessive prosecution of war crimes. “He wants to extend the benefit of the doubt to the warfighter, barring, of course, an outright massacre,” a source familiar with the defense secretary’s mindset shared. 

“We ultimately need attorneys who provide sound constitutional advice and don’t exist merely as obstacles,” Hegseth stated during a Fox News interview on Sunday. 

Cancian expressed concerns over this approach, “While Hegseth believes troops should act decisively to secure victory without legal hesitation, this could lead to actions contravening international laws or treaties, sparking significant controversies both domestically and with allies.” 

According to the reports by Fox News, the ascension of Caine, with his clandestine operations background, and the dismissal of top military lawyers signal a potential pivot toward covert operations. This shift aligns with recent terrorism designations targeting Latin American cartels, potentially paving the way for covert counter-narcotics missions south of the border. 

“We might witness shifts in troop deployments in longstanding regions and new missions in Mexico targeting the cartels,” speculated another Hegseth confidant.